The Roads Less Traveled, Part 2

Yankees and Red Sox Road Trip, July/August 2012: My then-wife and I were getting pretty adventurous with our vacations. We decided to spend a few days in New York, a few more days in Connecticut and end the trip with a few days in Boston. She wasn’t a big baseball fan, so you can imagine how surprised I was when she agreed to go to games at the new Yankee Stadium AND Fenway Park. Then again, marriage is all about compromise.

 

July 29: I proudly walked into Yankee Stadium wearing a Phillies shirt, expecting to get needled relentlessly by New York’s notorious fans. I was both disappointed and relieved that aside from one snide comment, I was completely left alone. The Yankees were hosting the Red Sox in a Sunday night ESPN game, so the tension and anticipation in the ballpark were palpable. I had always hated the Yankees, and I still do to this day, but something unexpected happened during the game. I got the sense that these fans, while abrasive and loud, loved their team and knew their team. It was a level of passion I hadn’t even felt at Phillies games. As the game began, I couldn’t help but notice the father and son who sat just to my left. The father was teaching his son about the players and what was happening on the field, just like my dad did two decades before. Though he and I were clearly on opposing sides, the father and I gained a mutual respect for one another as the game progressed. It went to extra innings with the Yanks and Sox deadlocked, 2-2, but my wife, her friend and I left after the ninth to avoid the subway rush after the game (the Sox would go on to win 3-2). As we got up from our seats and the father got up to let us pass, he and I actually engaged in a brief man hug and wished each other a good night. Here I was, embracing a Yankees fan at a Yankees game! It was actually the most positive fan interaction I’ve ever experienced with a stranger at a baseball game. That sure was a life lesson I’ll never forget.

August 2: The polar opposite occurred four days later in Boston, which is a shame because for years I’d dreamed of going to Fenway Park. The stadium itself was beautiful, but the hard seats were very uncomfortable, and the passionate vibe I’d felt at the Yankees game was replaced with bitterness. The Red Sox were in the midst of a disastrous season under manager Bobby Valentine, who lasted just that one year. The fans were not happy, and that contempt hung heavy around the ballpark. The Sox didn’t help, getting blanked 5-0 by the Twins, a team with a record even worse than Boston. My wife and I were so happy to get out of there. I used to like the Red Sox, especially when they stuck it to the Yankees in the 2004 ALCS, but this game began a turnaround in my thinking. I came the rest of the way after their sign stealing scandal and the fans hurling racial slurs at Orioles outfielder, Adam Jones. Now, I’m actually looking forward to my next trip to Yankees Stadium, but I don’t know if I’ll ever return to Fenway.

 

One final thing I will say about Yankee Stadium and Fenway is that traversing the interior of both is like walking through a museum. The venues pay wonderful homage to the long and celebrated histories of their franchises. They belong high on the bucket list of any serious fan.

Holy Cow!

The final day of the 2011 regular season was shaping up to be an epic one, but I could not have scripted a better finish if I tried.

Here was the sequence of events:

The Orioles down to their last strike, Nolan Reimold clocks a Jonathan Papelbon heater into right center for a ground-rule RBI double to tie the game. Robert Andino follows with a line shot that falls just under the glove of a diving Carl Crawford, allowing Reimold to score the winning run.

After the celebration in Baltimore between first and second base, I switch over to the Yankees-Rays game in the bottom of the 12th inning. With the count even at 2-2, Evan Longoria shoots a laser that barely clears the left-field wall, punching Tampa Bay's ticket to the postseason.

Need we any greater examples of baseball's magnificence?

In both of the games mentioned above, the victor did not own a lead until the very last pitch, and each one was a strike away from defeat.

In the National League, the Phillies' 4-3, 13-inning win over the Braves knocked them out of the playoffs after the Cardinals' 8-0 win over the Astros earlier in the day.

Baseball is full of historic late-season collapses, but 2011 earned its distinction with a pair of breakdowns in the Wild Card race. Atlanta and Boston each entered the final month of the season with a lead of more than 8 games in the Wild Card standings, but by the 162nd game they fell into ties with St. Louis and Tampa Bay, respectively. Such an occurrence was crazy enough, and it seemed as if at least one of the two races would result in a 163rd contest.

The walk-off gods were having none of that.

In the end, the baseball universe righted itself. After all, a team that opens the season 2-10 isn't supposed to make the playoffs (only three teams ever have), and it's no surprise that Crawford, who was very un-Crawford-like during his first season in Beantown, failed to make the play that sealed the Red Sox' fate.

But hand it to the Cardinals and Rays for playing their butts off in September after wallowing in mediocrity for much of the year. These are the kind of late surges that lead to world championships.

Speaking of hot finishes, I need to give props to the O's, who I still consider my second favorite major league team. They closed out the season with 11 wins in their last 17 games, and turned Boston's mighty roar atop the AL East into a whimper in that final series. Say what you want about the 14 consecutive losing seasons, but there's no sweeter ending than a walk-off win over the Red Sox. Hero Andino put it best:

"End the season like this, [to] make Boston go home sad, crying, I'll take it all day."

Take it all winter, guys.

Werth out of the yahd

Good news for Jayson Werth: it sounds like he’ll be able to keep the scruff after all.

The New York Yankees have more immediate concerns than the free agent right fielder – who just declined arbitration – such as shoving their cold shoulder into Derek Jeter’s mouth and luring Cliff Lee into a pitching rotation that was supposed to get them another World Series title. Werth didn’t get one either with the Philadelphia Phillies in 2010, but with the numbers he’s put up over the past three years, he’s the best outfielder on the market that money from another contender can buy.

And said contender will likely jack up its payroll for the purchase. The question is whether or not the bearded slugger is ‘Werth’ the amount hardball agent Scott Boras will demand.

A nine-figure payday would be unlikely even if Werth was still south of 30, because he’s not a big enough name to attract that kind of dough in the present economic climate. But Boras will work his magic to replace his own pupils with dollar signs, while an emphatic “ca-ching” escapes from his mouth.

Werth will then sit comfortably with his new team, likely with a multi-year deal making nearly double per season than he did in 2010 with the Phillies (7.5 million).

The "right" offer could send Werth anywhere from Beantown to Chi-town or Hollywood, and he will be paid too much to play in any one of those places. Business deals are never without an element of risk, and Werth is most definitely a risk.

His resume is impressive, but it lacks a monster season that warrants 15 million. Any ballclub spending that much is paying for a versatile outfielder who will put up blinding offensive numbers for approximately six weeks out of the season, while tolling the Mendoza Line during the other four months. That team must also endure countless at-bats during which Werth will lunge unsuccessfully at a 3-2 pitch out of the zone with runners in scoring position.

However, buyers are looking at more than Werth’s box scores, and despite the previously mentioned end result, he works the count full better than anyone in the game. In this era of over-protectiveness concerning starting pitchers, Werth is the kind of batter that will drive up pitch counts.

Werth’s OPS has also increased in each of the last three years, and he surpassed 100 runs scored for the first time in 2010.

Among all the teams with a chance to make the postseason, this is a match made in heaven for the Red Sox. Werth is a sabermetric goldmine to Boston GM Theo Epstein.

The Red Sox were hurt even more than the Phillies last season and still managed to lead all of baseball in team OPS (.790). Not only will Werth fit right in with a lineup full of patient sluggers, but Boston can cover Boras’ ridiculous asking price.

Werth’s bat would replace the recent hole left by Victor Martinez, and his right-handed swing is a good complement to lefty David Ortiz. His swagger and long locks will woo the ladies, and his blasts over the Green Monster will encourage all of Red Sox Nation to chant his name. It’s an easy and inviting image that will be hard for Epstein to dismiss from his mind heading into the Winter Meetings.

Boras can make those daydreams a reality, and Werth will soon get a visit from another bearded fellow. Santa is coming early this year and he’s wearing a Boston cap.

All Good Things...

Pat "The Bat" Burrell is headed back to the World Series, but unfortunately for the white-rally-towel twirlers, not as a member of the Phillies.

Brotherly love wasn't enough for the boys in red pinstripes as they saw their season end with a 3-2 loss in Game 6 of the NLCS to the San Francisco Giants, who needed to beat the San Diego Padres on the final day of the regular season just to make the playoffs.

Now the two teams that were expected to meet again in the World Series for the second straight year will both be watching from home. An offensive blackout led to the demise of the both the Phillies and the Yankees, though the writing was on the wall for Philadelphia.

Injuries took a heavy toll on the Phillie hitters for a significant part of the regular season. While the addition of Roy Oswalt led to a dramatic turnaround over the last two months and another NL East title, that same old magic that carried the team through the previous two postseasons was nowhere to be found. And playoff teams that boast some of the best pitching in baseball took a note from the Yankees on just how to handle such a dangerous lineup.

It was no surprise, then, that Ryan Howard was the strikeout victim who ended Philly's 2010 dreams.

Howard is now first or tied for first for the most strikeouts in two separate postseason series, and drove in nary a run from the clean-up spot this October. Since his infamous whiffing in the 2009 Fall Classic, the Big Piece has struck out in 30 of his 56 playoff at-bats. That means that in more than half his trips to the plate, the man who is paid $20 million per year to crush balls over the fence didn't even put the ball in play. Of the 26 times Howard managed knock the ball between the lines, only one left the yard.

Ironically, Howard was the only starter in the lineup to hit better than .300 in the postseason this year, though he was typically all alone on the basepahts. Raul Ibanez was a distant second with a .226 average. Carlos Ruiz, who had never hit below .262 in any previous postseason, was dead last at .192.

As Charlie Manuel explained, the Phillies were too concerned with working the count, rather than being selective. They stood and stared at too many fastballs down the middle of the plate, making it easier for pitchers to get them to chase at breaking balls that tailed out of the zone. Combined, Cincinnati and San Francisco held Philadelphia to 3.7 runs per game - compared to 4.6 in '08 and 5.5 last year - and not even the likes of Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt and Cole Hamels can carry you to a championship with that kind of production.

The beleaguered Phillies pitching staff still consistently put the team in a position to win. Aside from Game 3, each one of Philadelphia's losses in the NLCS could have gone the other way. It was basically the Giants coming up with the big hits, and some would add Halladay not getting the start in Game 4. No one can predict what would've happened in that scenario, but as close as each game was, such decisions loom very large.

But the shadows cast on the end of this season will quickly fade, as the sun shines brightly on a new day for the Phillies in 2011. All three elements of H2O are returning, as well as the entire starting lineup, aside from the likely departing Jayson Werth. Should the corner outfielder follow in Burrell's footsteps and find his way back to the Fall Classic with another team, the Phillies hope that when he gets there, they will be staring him down from the opposing dugout.

Really??

It's funny that I started this blog with a post about veteran pitcher Roy Oswalt, and by the end of the day, he may be a Phillie. Much has been going around about his hesitation, making him appear like a whiny, selfish child, but most players in his position must carefully weigh the pros and cons of leaving the one place they've known for so long. I don't doubt Oswalt's desire to win a championship, and he can help more than one team toward that goal. He's a great fit for the Phillies, but they have to be the right fit for him.

Apparently, the only thing left to decide is whether or not Oswalt will waive his no-trade clause. It's hard to believe that this deal could go through without giving up Jayson Werth. JA Happ is good buy for the Astros, but if Ruben Amaro is content with fully depleting our farm system's best prospects, it seems out of touch with the organization's long-term goals. Win or lose this year or next, I love how this present crop of Phillies were mostly home grown. The mark of a successful and respectful team is its ability to groom top prospects and hold onto them when they reach their full potential in the majors. Watching this team turn into the Yankees is not something I'll enjoy.

But who am I kidding? I'll still watch. In any case, aside from my unwitting prediction of Ken Griffey, Jr.'s retirement, much of my crystal ball visions in this blog have been wrong. Oswalt and the Braves could be friends, but he's coming to Philly instead. Then again, there's still plenty to time for this deal to crumble and another team to swoop in like the Rangers did to the Yankees when they snatched Cliff Lee.

Now that was fun to watch.

Why does the AL always win?

I've got some more Trek geek trivia for you, which compares to the National League's current plight. I noticed a long time ago, and it's probably noted on several Trekker blogs and message boards, that during the entire seven-year run of Next Generation, Geordi LaForge was the only regular who never won a poker game. Seven years without winning once - that sounds familiar...

Ah, the age-old question.

It may seem strange to categorize the question as age-old considering that the NL dominated the Midsummer Classic for the majority of its history. But I think the adjective fits in my case, since the AL turned the tables in 1988 when I was only six years old. In that time, the AL has gone 18-3-1 in the All-Star Game and is presently maintaining a 12-game winning streak (excluding the 7-7 tie in 2002).

I’m on a fool’s errand to try and find an answer to the AL’s success, but that has never stopped any of my previous endeavors. In my research I used a combination of my own observations and expounded upon the opinions I heard and read from various sources. As always, it’s up to my audience to decide whether or not my findings carry any weight.

The first thing I did was to limit my research to the past seven All-Star Games, since the ridiculous decision was made that the winner of the mid-July showcase would be rewarded home-field advantage in the World Series (a decision that hasn’t really hurt NL teams, which have won three of the last seven Fall Classics without home-field advantage). The All-Star Game shouldn’t affect anything during the regular season or playoffs, but it’s good to study the games that have actually mattered. Steroid use has also been on the decline since 2003.

With the parameters set up, I started searching for a pattern of dominance. I knew this would be no easy task, given the inherent randomness of one baseball game, let alone seven. There was also the fact that the AL had won each of the last four All-Star Games by just one run.

Luckily, I happened to catch an interview Bob Costas conducted with Jimmy Rollins and Ryan Howard. He asked them why they thought the AL kept winning, and they said the designated hitter gave the Junior Circuit all the advantage. That argument seemed pretty weak, but Costas led me down a more concrete path of reasoning when he pointed out that the Phillies offense struggled mightily against New York Yankee pitchers in the World Series. Howard particularly looked bad against a continuous string of breaking balls low and away.

It then dawned on me; why don’t NL pitchers throw Howard more off-speed junk? I’ve also read that AL pitchers in general throw more breaking balls, maybe because they don’t have to worry as much about small ball with the designated hitter. When you’re not throwing to poor-hitting pitchers or worrying as much about the bunt or hit-and-run, you don’t rely as much on the fastball. All major league hitters are looking for the fastball, so could the AL just be getting better pitches to hit from NL flame-throwers?

A general look at total baserunners and strikeouts over the last seven years turned up no patterns. The AL didn’t dominate either category.

As I continued my search, I read a theory online (with no numbers to back it up) that said the American League had better relief pitching in the All-Star Game. I immediately tracked down those numbers and on the surface, they appeared to support the claim.

In the past seven All-Star Games, AL relievers have posted a 3.91 ERA, compared to the NL’s 5.49. The disparity grows even more in the four one-run contests, three of which were decided in the last two innings. Since 2006, AL relievers have allowed just two earned runs in 15 innings, while striking out 16. In that same stretch, NL relievers have surrendered eight earned runs on 16 hits with just eight strikeouts.

This might explain the NL’s tendency to lean on starters much later in the game. The AL always seems to come up with the big hit off the guys whose job it is to shut down late rallies.

However, this explanation is hurt quite a bit by the fact that AL relievers have also walked eight batters in the past seven Midsummer Classics, compared to just three by the NL. The last thing you want to see late in a tight contest is a bunch of free passes. The AL is simply picking up the key outs, while the NL keeps getting hit.

In the end, this all seems to come down to a lot of luck. The AL stars keep calling heads and at the end of each game, George Washington’s profile continues to shine up at them.

The American League does have one clear advantage in relief pitching, though. Of the eight saves it has recorded since 1997, Mariano Rivera has four of them. Arguably the best relief pitcher in baseball history, Rivera has yet to allow an earned run in the All-Star Game.

The NL won’t have to worry about Rivera tomorrow due to his opting out, but his mentioning leads very well into my only other explanation: the AL always wins because the Yankees and the Red Sox are the two best teams in baseball. No other teams have enjoyed such a prominent presence in the Midsummer Classic. Since 2000, no fewer than a combined seven players from the two squads have been selected as representatives of the AL elite, and the pair also made up more than half of the starting lineups in ’02, ’05 and ’08.

Not only did New York and Boston feature some of the best pitchers of the last decade, but their hitters are notorious for working the count and getting on base. Stability breeds success and with so many Yankees and Red Sox taking the field every year, not to mention the pesky Ichiro cementing himself at the top of the lineup, it’s a winning formula. Aside from Albert Pujols, the NL can’t maintain that kind of consistency.

Whatever help the NL needs to break the pattern, it won’t get it from second-year manager Charlie Manuel. The Phillies skipper, in his infinite wisdom, decided to fill his roster with Atlanta utility infielder Omar Infante and Houston Astros centerfielder Michael Bourn (.255 batting average, 66 strikeouts and .661 OPS). Manuel apparently doesn’t pay attention to anyone in his league outside of former Phillies and players from his own division. Two guys who have no business making an All-Star Team, and probably never will again, were chosen outright, while the Reds’ Joey Votto – the best hitter in the NL right now – needed to squeeze in with the fans’ final vote. Votto is a guy who could easily come up with a couple of big hits, and he might not even leave the dugout.

This isn’t the first time NL managers have made poor decisions in the All-Star Game. King Albert Pujols was kept away from his batting box throne in the ’07 Classic by his own manager, while the vastly inferior Aaron Rowand (even in his career year with the Phillies) was given a second at-bat and flew out with the bases loaded to end the game.

The odds don’t seem to be in the NL’s favor with all of these mitigating factors, but if the closeness of the past four games is any indicator, the coin could still fall the Senior Circuit’s way by the time the last out is made tomorrow in Anaheim.

Unfortunately, I see the gap widening and Washington’s face shining brighter than ever. The AL will take this one by a final of 6-3.

Happy to be wrong

Six hits aren't that reassuring, but a win at Yankee Stadium is, and I saw a few other things that stuck out about tonight's game.

Ryan Howard and Jayson Werth went back-to-back right after a four-run inning, which is an important step for home run hitters trying to escape a slump. They got a hold of hittable pitches, rather than swinging late or not at all.

The Phillies as a team stole three bases. That's an aggressiveness they need to show in every single game. They have the speed to beat the pitchers with quick deliveries and catchers with accurate arms. I dare you to try and catch me, Yadier Molina.

Certain Phillies players love to prove wrong what I say about them in fresh posts, but they've all been for the best so keep it up!

Jamie Moyer gets shelled by the Boston Red Sox, then turns around and eats the Yankee lineup for dinner over eight innings of off-speed glory. He seems hit-or-miss, but if we're keeping Joe Blanton in the rotation, then Moyer definitely belongs there.

It remains to be seen whether this will finally be the game that leads the Phillies back to the team we remember from the last two years, or just another glimmer of sunlight in an otherwise stormy sky. I tend to lean toward the second possibility.

Again guys, prove me wrong.

Fair & Balanced

I don't typically write about what's going on in the news, because sadly I don't consider myself informed enough. Even when I try to be, details thrown around on any given day end up confusing me, and I just turn right back to ESPN. However, at this critical time for our country, I offer a simple question. I completely understand President Obama's initial decision to allow BP to clean up its own mess in the Gulf of Mexico. Anyone would have; it was their fault. But after how many failures does it take for a president to exercise his executive power to find someone, ANYONE with more intelligence and resources to try and clean up the mess. The entire ecosystem down there is now screwed as this crisis has dragged on for countless weeks. I can't claim to know the Obama administration's plan of action when the spill first occurred, but it's safe to say they waited too long to respond.

Ok, A-Rod didn't play tonight, but it's not like the Yankees needed him anyway.

I'll go on about how this is the beginning of the end for the Phillies (which is still premature to say at this point), but not today. I decided instead to distract myself with another more positive baseball activity.

I just cast my votes for the All-Star Game.

It's really thrilling to have a tiny hand in deciding which ball-bashing superstars - and aging, but still adored veterans - will race onto the field in July's battle of the leagues. To call the process a popularity contest is as obvious as calling Albert Pujols a good hitter, but I try not to concern myself with that too much. The reason for that is I'm just as guilty as everyone else.

I'd like to think that my selections are objective and based on performance from year to year. First of all, I always wait until June to vote so I get a much better idea of the standouts in each league. I then look through each starter's season stats to determine my selections. I make sure to look at the sluggers who have also hit for a high average, in addition to the most successful leadoff hitters. In the case of a tie between two power guys, stolen bases will tip the scale.

Also, players who have superior career numbers, but who are no longer producing (i.e. - Chipper Jones, Jim Thome, Jason Giambi, etc.) aren't considered.

I undermine this whole process, however, because I also follow two fundamentally flawed and ridiculously unfair rules: vote for every Phillies starter at least once and don't waste any votes on a Yankee.

Fox News, I am ready to send you my resume.

In recent years, I have felt a steadily growing guilt about the former rule, so I've begun to split my votes in the NL between Phillies and other position players I feel are more deserving. This new practice became necessary when I deferred to Ryan Howard's .220 batting average and 90 strikeouts, while King Albert was getting the shaft. I realize my current division approach doesn't help anyone or anything aside from my own conscience, but I can live with that.

There are plenty of other voters out there like me, which is more apparent than ever this season. Despite the Phillies' slide, six of them would be headed for southern California July 13 if the present results were final.

On the flip side, the two New York Yankees most deserving of a start at Anaheim, Derek Jeter and Robinson Cano, aren't getting any love from me. It's easy to rationalize that move, however, because they clearly don't need my help.

I wish I could claim that above all else, I want to see two teams filled with the best players of the 2010 season lined up on either side of home plate at Angel Stadium next month. But in truth, all I really want to see is as many red-pinstriped players there as possible, so they can show baseball fans around the country just how good they are.

Maybe by then, they actually will.

Bad time for a rematch

For the first time in my journalism career, I will be covering a state championship game. Best of all, it's a baseball championship game. Against all odds, one of the area high school teams that we cover at the Gettysburg Times has won every single postseason game it has played for a chance to do something no area baseball team before it has accomplished (at least according to the archives that go back to 1977). Nothing beats Major League Baseball as far as sports are concerned, but it's times like these that I consider myself infinitely lucky to be a professional sports writer.

It's really a shame the New York Yankees won't be facing Roy Halladay AND Cole Hamels in their upcoming clash with the Phillies at Yankee Stadium. Philly fans have been waiting all season long to say that, but it does look like Hamels is finally approaching the dominant hurler he was in 2008.

They'll have to triple the normal security in New York for tomorrow night's series. Plenty of people will be drive up I-95 to see their home team, and considering that they will enter the same place in which the Yankees dethroned the Phillies as world champs last November, tempers will undoubtedly flare throughout every section and every row.

It actually makes me glad I won't be there.

I also wouldn't want to see A-Rod break a 1-1 tie in the bottom of the ninth with a towering home run to right center. I wouldn't want to witness the careless flipping of the bat as he watches his shot leave the yard, throwing one fist in the air and popping the pink bubble gum in his mouth. He'll pop it with authority, basking in his superstar smugness and the knowledge that he is the latest in a long line of spoilers who have denied Roy Halladay's pitching brilliance with a win.

Halladay should be 10-2 right now, and the confidence he gives his teammates should allow him the expectation that they will support him on the other end. But thus far, Halladay as had to be "perfect" to let his success show at least somewhat in his record. Over his last five starts combined, the Phillies have scored a paltry five runs for him. Halladay has gone just 2-3 over that stretch. A complete-game loss is almost unheard these days, and it's even harder to believe that Halladay has one this season, particularly with such a loaded lineup.

Sure, Halladay's one really bad start of the season came against another AL East opponent, the Boston Red Sox, but the Yankees would be foolish to think that they're in for an easy night.

The Phillies offense also can't think the same about CC Sabathia, who hasn't recorded a win against Philadelphia (including the postseason) since June 2007. Sabathia is also off to his usual slow start, as four of his six wins this season have come against the down-and-out Baltimore Orioles. However, the Phillies aren't hitting much better than the O's right now.

The Phils need to kill the scenario playing out in my head because I don't see Kyle Kendrick enjoying much success against the Yankee lineup, and Jamie Moyer still has yet to prove that he can pitch against a hot-hitting club. The A-Rod bomb I'm envisioning will spark a three-game sweep that reduces the Phillies to a doormat for the Twins when they come to town at the end of the week.

Tomorrow night the boys in red will have to make Halladay feel good about only giving up one run to the opposition. Shane Victorino will need to reach base at least twice. Chase Utley will need to rediscover the stroke that allowed him to go deep on Sabathia three times in last year's Fall Classic. Raul Ibanez must maintain his recent surge, and for heaven's sake, Ryan Howard, just leave those tailing breaking balls alone!