I promised a post about Shane Victorino concerning the rate at which the ball is flyin' out for the Hawaiin this season. This is a lesson to me to never again preview a post based on an assumption.
I figured there had to be some explanation as to why with 45 percent of the season left to play Victorino had already exceeded his season high in home runs. I was planning on making the grand claim that he was drawing from the bad example of Jimmy Rollins, whose power numbers had increased in recent years without regard to his on-base percentage. Referring to the theme of yesterday's posting, I reasoned that Victorino was trying to hit more home runs.
I deferred to Victorino's 2010 stats, expecting to find a significant difference in certain areas from past seasons. Specifically, a player trying to hit more home runs would have a lower ground-ball/fly-ball ratio and would tend to be less selective at the plate, resulting less pitches per plate appearance, more strikeouts and less walks.
Unfortunately, the verdict was not in my favor. Victorino's numbers in all the areas I just mentioned don't differ significantly from past years, and neither do J-Roll's for that matter (comparing his 20-plus home run seasons to the rest). In fact, I didn't even take into account that Rollins began hitting more home runs after the Phillies moved from the Vet to Citizens Bank and he cut down on his strikeouts, which contradicts the assumptions I made about Victorino.
The only significant difference in both their cases is in the years with more homers, their home run percentage on fly balls was much higher. Basically, Victorino is hitting the same amount of fly balls as he always did, it's just more of them are leaving the yard. That could be chalked up to a quicker bat speed, and not to mention that most of Victorino's blasts barely make it over the fence anyway. He's always been a fly-ball hitter and it's paying off for him more than ever.
Victorino has suffered from a lower batting average this season, but that has nothing to do with his increased power. Bad luck is a big factor there as his average on balls in play this season is just .258. He's simply hitting balls right at people more often than before.
If there's one thing I have learned from this rather humbling discovery is Charlie Manuel has the wrong guys in the leadoff spot. He's being blinded by Rollins' and Victorino's size and speed. It's true that the two of them will steal a healthy amount of bags and have a good chance of scoring when they reach base. The trouble is their collective OBP (.333) is far too low, and even though they're both switch hitters, they don't hit to all fields consistently enough. Placido Polanco, on the other hand, sprays the ball all over the place and is one of the best two-strike hitters in baseball. As for reaching base, no one is better at that on the Phillies than Chase Utley. I wonder what would happen if Manuel stuck Utley in the leadoff spot for a few weeks after he returned from the DL. Given the chance, he could definitely swipe more bags and is a smart base runner. The modified lineup would look something like this:
1. Chase Utley (L)
2. Placido Polanco (R)
3. Jimmy Rollins (S)
4. Ryan Howard (L)
5. Jayson Werth (R) (assuming he's still with the team in August)
6. Shane Victorino (S)
7. Raul Ibanez (L)
8. Carlos Ruiz (R)
The two-hole has always belonged to Polanco, obviously, but with Utley in front of him, there's more of a chance he would come to plate with a man on, and the distribution of righties and lefties in the order wouldn't be compromised. After dealing with a patient Utley and a pesky Polanco, a starting pitcher won't enjoy the first inning as much.
I guess this is how you learn and grow from making mistakes. I realized some errors in my logic and the journey to correct them led to a new batting order for the Phillies. At this point, it would behoove them to try anything new.
Showing posts with label OPB. Show all posts
Showing posts with label OPB. Show all posts
Tuesday, July 20, 2010
Thursday, July 8, 2010
Deception Island
Brady Anderson, you'll never know it was me because you'll never read this blog, but I apologize for taunting you from the stands at that Orioles game my dad and went to nearly nine years ago. You were a great player nearing the end of your career, and I was too immature and disrespectful to realize that. A thousand pardons.
Though my blog title does reference today's topic, I would like to brag that I also have been to that island on the Antarctic Peninsula. It was amazing.
Admittedly, I'm finding it harder to blog about every Phillies game because I don't want to keep spewing out the same material over and over. There's not much point if I can't touch on something original, something new that hasn't occurred to me or - if I'm really lucky - anybody else. I've got to keep this thing fresh so it continues to be a product people want to continue to invest their time in, even if my audience is just a few crazy baseball fans. It's true that Jamie Moyer picked the worst time to have another bad outing when the Braves are starting to feel comfortable at the top, but today I'd like to talk about the Big Man.
I've held off blogging about No. 6 because more than anyone else on the team, his role is clear and simple: hit home runs and drive people in. Over the past four years, no one has been better at doing that than Ryan Howard. The only other three players to put up his numbers in four straight years - Babe Ruth, Ken Griffey, Jr. and Sammy Sosa - are either dead, suspect or retired. Ryan is, dare I say, an island unto himself.
Though he's been just as bogged down by the Phillies' struggles this season as anyone else, a quick glance at his present stats does encourage a little optimism. Howard seems to be continuing on last year's track of approaching the hitting success of his rookie season. The month of April notwithstanding, it's been a long, long while since we've seen Howard's batting average at .298. He's finally starting to understand why there are always three hitters on the right side of the infield when he steps to the plate. He's hitting the ball the other way with more regularity, especially on the ground.
And therein lies the deception...
Upon closer inspection, Howard is on the track toward the least productive season of his career. No one could expect him to maintain the freakish numbers forever, and he'll still probably hit more than 30 homers and knock in and score more than 100 runs. But all around, he's not taking the same approach at the plate as in years past. Consider these numbers in a "if the season ended today" scenario:
- Though Howard is striking out less (a career-low mark of 23.1%), he's also walking a lot less, just 7.3% of the time. Pitchers would consider themselves lucky to get Howard out when he first got to the bigs, but the task is not so hard anymore.
- Not surprisingly, Howard's discipline at the plate is also wavering. While teammate Jayson Werth is presently tied for second in the league in pitches seen per at bat (4.38), Howard's 3.79 is barely a blip on the radar. He'll still see his fair share of 2-2 and 3-2 counts from less experienced pitchers who just want to stay away from him, but Howard used to work the count a lot better than he does now.
- Howard's line drive rate remains steady in the 20s, but many more of those line drives are falling in for singles. We're used to seeing much more pop from Howard. If the ball didn't go out, it would at least be caught at the warning track or crushed deep into the alleys for a double. His present extra-base hits rate of 9.6% is not the inconsistency you'd expect from your cleanup hitter. It could be the pressure to perform from his new contract or the extra weight he lost in the offseason. Whatever the reason, Howard just isn't driving the ball with the same authority.
- Relative to the rest of the league, Howard's OPS of .854 is quite respectable, but it's not the figure you want from your power-hitting first baseman and sits 100 points lower than his career average.
- Despite his higher batting average, the big man's on-base percentage is only .349. There was one season in which he got on with less frequency, and that was 2008 when he batted just .251. That year, his numbers in all the other categories I previously mentioned were markedly better than in 2010.
Of course, we're only halfway through the season, and we all know what happens to Ryan in August and September: nobody can seem to get him out. If the Phillies continue to struggle, they'll need him to step up more than ever as the postseason looms. All these singles just won't cut it.
With Placido Polanco and Chase Utley out, Howard also needs to work the count a lot more. Werth's the only one doing a good job of that in the lineup right now, and many of his counts seem to end fruitlessly with strikeouts in key situations that only build a pitcher's confidence back up. The pitcher won't even experience that good feeling if Howard battles until he gets that mistake pitch and crushes it onto Ashburn Alley. Man, I sure miss that.
Though my blog title does reference today's topic, I would like to brag that I also have been to that island on the Antarctic Peninsula. It was amazing.
Admittedly, I'm finding it harder to blog about every Phillies game because I don't want to keep spewing out the same material over and over. There's not much point if I can't touch on something original, something new that hasn't occurred to me or - if I'm really lucky - anybody else. I've got to keep this thing fresh so it continues to be a product people want to continue to invest their time in, even if my audience is just a few crazy baseball fans. It's true that Jamie Moyer picked the worst time to have another bad outing when the Braves are starting to feel comfortable at the top, but today I'd like to talk about the Big Man.
I've held off blogging about No. 6 because more than anyone else on the team, his role is clear and simple: hit home runs and drive people in. Over the past four years, no one has been better at doing that than Ryan Howard. The only other three players to put up his numbers in four straight years - Babe Ruth, Ken Griffey, Jr. and Sammy Sosa - are either dead, suspect or retired. Ryan is, dare I say, an island unto himself.
Though he's been just as bogged down by the Phillies' struggles this season as anyone else, a quick glance at his present stats does encourage a little optimism. Howard seems to be continuing on last year's track of approaching the hitting success of his rookie season. The month of April notwithstanding, it's been a long, long while since we've seen Howard's batting average at .298. He's finally starting to understand why there are always three hitters on the right side of the infield when he steps to the plate. He's hitting the ball the other way with more regularity, especially on the ground.
And therein lies the deception...
Upon closer inspection, Howard is on the track toward the least productive season of his career. No one could expect him to maintain the freakish numbers forever, and he'll still probably hit more than 30 homers and knock in and score more than 100 runs. But all around, he's not taking the same approach at the plate as in years past. Consider these numbers in a "if the season ended today" scenario:
- Though Howard is striking out less (a career-low mark of 23.1%), he's also walking a lot less, just 7.3% of the time. Pitchers would consider themselves lucky to get Howard out when he first got to the bigs, but the task is not so hard anymore.
- Not surprisingly, Howard's discipline at the plate is also wavering. While teammate Jayson Werth is presently tied for second in the league in pitches seen per at bat (4.38), Howard's 3.79 is barely a blip on the radar. He'll still see his fair share of 2-2 and 3-2 counts from less experienced pitchers who just want to stay away from him, but Howard used to work the count a lot better than he does now.
- Howard's line drive rate remains steady in the 20s, but many more of those line drives are falling in for singles. We're used to seeing much more pop from Howard. If the ball didn't go out, it would at least be caught at the warning track or crushed deep into the alleys for a double. His present extra-base hits rate of 9.6% is not the inconsistency you'd expect from your cleanup hitter. It could be the pressure to perform from his new contract or the extra weight he lost in the offseason. Whatever the reason, Howard just isn't driving the ball with the same authority.
- Relative to the rest of the league, Howard's OPS of .854 is quite respectable, but it's not the figure you want from your power-hitting first baseman and sits 100 points lower than his career average.
- Despite his higher batting average, the big man's on-base percentage is only .349. There was one season in which he got on with less frequency, and that was 2008 when he batted just .251. That year, his numbers in all the other categories I previously mentioned were markedly better than in 2010.
Of course, we're only halfway through the season, and we all know what happens to Ryan in August and September: nobody can seem to get him out. If the Phillies continue to struggle, they'll need him to step up more than ever as the postseason looms. All these singles just won't cut it.
With Placido Polanco and Chase Utley out, Howard also needs to work the count a lot more. Werth's the only one doing a good job of that in the lineup right now, and many of his counts seem to end fruitlessly with strikeouts in key situations that only build a pitcher's confidence back up. The pitcher won't even experience that good feeling if Howard battles until he gets that mistake pitch and crushes it onto Ashburn Alley. Man, I sure miss that.
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