Monday, July 19, 2010

Stop trying so hard!

The thing that I've grown a greater appreciation for as I've delved deeper into my understanding of baseball is the infinite number of things that can result from a pitch to the plate. I suppose the same is true after a snap of the football, a tee shot or a serve in tennis, but those things don't flood me right to the core with anticipation like baseball...

How lovely - the Phillies hit three home runs tonight. It's just a pity all of them came when the game was already lost and with no one on base. Four of the team's six runs Sunday night came via the fly ball. None of them threatened the Cubs' lead, so the pressure was more or less off in each case. Therein lies the point of my posting, which I'm embarrassed to say was unearthed by one of the game's most despised color analysts, Joe Morgan.

Then again, it makes perfect sense. How else would a team full of sluggers try and rid itself of a slump? Swing for the fences to try and be a hero and get the offense going. This is not the right mindset to have in a slump, but everyone in the lineup (except Placido Polanco) has home run on the brain every time they step to the plate. That may be fine for Ryan Howard, who's in the zone right now, but Jayson Werth and Raul Ibanez are in too much of a rut, while Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino (the subject of my next posting) need to worry more about working the count and getting on base.

On the other hand, I can understand how frustrating this long stretch has been. The Philadelphia offense is not known to hit for average, hit well with runners in scoring position or post a high on-base percentage (they're presently among the bottom half of NL teams in all three categories), but they always had the home run to fall back on. Though the Phillies are presently fourth among NL teams in home runs with 98, they're on pace to finish well below last year's league-leading total of 224.

Injuries to Chase Utley and Rollins are partially to blame, but you see the great number of swings and misses at pitches out of the zone, the wasted pitches pulled foul and the countless pop-ups in the infield, it's not hard to guess where the rest of those missing bombs went. The hitters have spent so much time trying to crush every pitch that they've forgotten to look for the right one.

Being down by eight runs can sometimes clear a player's mind. It's easier to focus on your at-bat when the singular act of hitting a home run or reaching base will not affect the outcome of the game. The Phillies got down, way down, and then the home runs followed. The runs arrived far too late and once again, did not help Roy Halladay.

This will be a tough pattern to break, and it's hard to believe it's been going on for two months. A four-game sweep of the Reds is oddly bookended by six losses in eight total games to the Cubs and Pirates. The Reds weren't exactly at their best when the Phils faced them, and the St. Louis Cardinals are entering their series with Philly revitalized from a three-game sweep of the Dodgers that put them back in first place. This is not a good sign for a team that isn't hitting. Maybe instead of swinging for the fence, just aim for patches of grass unoccupied by white uniforms...

Saturday, July 17, 2010

Polly gets his cracker

Wow, guy's first game back from the DL. It almost seemed like it was supposed to happen that way.

It was Placido Polanco's only hit of the game, and it started the Phillies' four-run rally in game that came within one out of their third straight loss to the Cubs. Polly got some help on the other end, as Brian Schneider was out by a mile after trying to score from second base, but Geovany Soto let the excitement of a game-ending tag get the best of him. He barely allowed the ball to deflect off the top of his glove before he went lunging for his counterpart. In Bob Uecker's ironical vain, Schneider would have been "out by an eyelash," at the plate, but he instead scored the Phils' tying run.

Sadly, it's becoming routine in the eighth and ninth innings to beg the Phillies to keep rallies going because you never know which Brad Lidge you're going to get in the ninth. Luckily, patience above all else led to the promised land. Five of the nine batters in the frame drew walks, including a rare one from Jimmy Rollins. And though Jayson Werth couldn't put the ball in play, it was refreshing to see him do something else in a crucial, late-game moment than strike out.

I must also give big props to Raul Ibanez for tearing down the line on a weak grounder to Derek Lee that turned into an RBI infield single when James Russell couldn't cover first base in time. Much has been made of Ibanez's lack of contributions to the team, but he's one guy who will bust out of that batter's box on contact, no matter where the ball is headed. He doesn't look 38 years old running down the line either.

There were so many good things to like about that inning, and the Phillie lineup is nearly whole again with Polanco back in there, but the offense continues to sputter along. Cole Hamels is looking better with every start, but the hitters didn't give him a single run. This was his eighth quality start of the season that did not result in a winning decision. Had Soto waited a fraction of a second longer, Hamels' 2010 record would have fallen below .500 yet again. Roy Halladay can definitely relate.

Doc and Hamels are the Philly's two best pitchers, but they are a combined 17-14 on the year. The Phillies have given them each an average of less than four runs per game, compared to nearly six for Jamie Moyer and Kyle Kendrick. You can't expect the aces to keep piling up the goose eggs on the scoreboard every single time out.

OK...I expect that from Halladay, and we'll see what the Phillies give him tomorrow against Cubs hurler Tom Gorzelanny. The odds don't look good as the Philly bats mustered just three hits off him in a loss on May 19, and that was in one of the seven games this season they had all the regulars in the lineup. They need to break their current trend soon or they'll need binoculars to see how far ahead the Braves are in the division.

Friday, July 16, 2010

Pass the mustard

A throwaway title seemed fitting as I'm running out of unique ways to describe the Phillies' inconsistency. We're only two games into the second half, but the team has nothing on their plate but baseball for the next 16 days. Every subsequent loss is going to make that journey stretch out even further.

I admit that Philadelphia would not be playing with such off-and-on success with all of its pieces in place, but like Ryan Howard said, this team can still win even with all of these injuries. Maybe the players don't remember what its like to have so many of their teammates missing at one time. They're clearly not coping with it as well as the Boston Red Sox.

Howard has seemed to fool himself into thinking it's already late August in these first two games, smoking three two-run jacks, two of which have given the Phillies the lead. Thus far, he's provided two-thirds of the Phightins' total offense in the second half, and he can't be expected to carry the load on his own. The Cubs have suddenly forgotten that they're a team in a freefall, so the rest of the Phillie bats need to follow Ryan's example over these last two games.

When it comes to the Phils, I've never subscribed to the wait-and-see approach, but after following them more closely than I have before, I'm reaching that ambivalent point. The Phillies will either snap out of this for good at some future date or ride the seesaw through the rest of the season and likely miss the playoffs. They need several core players back and shop aggressively at the Trade Deadline (Ruben Amaro, Jr.'s moves last season basically got the Phillies back to World Series). Only then will the team be able to prevent one different aspect in every game that prevents it from winning.

Tuesday, July 13, 2010

The Big Stein demands final calzone

The baseball gods have been rewarding my patience over and over again for the past several years. Some presents have satisfied trivial hopes, others have been monumental. I got to see two Phillies win back-to-back Home Run Derbies. Two Phillies won back-to-back MVPs. The Phillies made the playoffs for three straight years and won their first world championship in my lifetime. An unbelievable five Phillies took the field for the 2009 All-Star Game in St. Louis. And now after 14 years of waiting, I finally see the National League win the Midsummer Classic this year. As an introverted, hometown Phillies fan with a lower class background, I was born to be an underdog, and the NL underdogs finally pulled one out.

Those same baseball gods opened their gates this morning to welcome home a true giant of the game, George Steinbrenner. Despite the hostility I feel toward the New York Yankees, particularly after watching my team lose the World Series to them last year, I must pay grudging respect for a man whose death at the age of 80 dealt a huge blow to the game of baseball.

Grudging respect is what I conveyed to the TV screen when I watched the last All-Star Game ever played at the old Yankee Stadium, and when I saw the last-ever game played there two months later. Grudging respect was what I gave to Yankee captain Derek Jeter in a column I wrote about the second World Baseball Classic, when he led a determined United States team with his words and his bat.

I have to try hard to fathom the loss that the Yankee organization and fans are feeling because for everything there is to love about Steinbrenner, there are an equal number of things to hate. I don't subscribe to the notion that winning is everything, and I despise the practice of trying to win a World Series by filling your roster with over-priced free agents. I question Steinbrenner's morality due to many of the decisions that he made during his four decades as the owner of the Yankees.

However, I'm certain that when Steinbrenner took the job in the early 1970s, he knew it would be his last. All die-hard baseball fans understand the great tradition of baseball and the significant place it holds in the fabric of American history. Much of that tradition can be associated with the Yankees, and Steinbrenner put his heart and soul into returning the team to prominence and carrying on the torch.

The Boss also softened up in his final 15 years as owner. I actually rooted for the Yankees in the World Series during their dynasty years in the latter half of the 1990s, and those Yankees were built the right way with a significant number of their contributors coming from their farm system.

Reggie Jackson, Dave Winfield and Don Mattingly can't make this claim, but today's Yankee players admired "Mr. Steinbrenner" for the care he showed to them, the fans and the organization. Until his health declined, he was a visible, accessible owner who wanted nothing more than his players to win and take pride in donning the New York pinstripes. The legacy of the Yankees was one he understood, cherished and helped continue into the new millennium.

I still can't wait for the day when the New York Yankees are no longer the best team in baseball, and millions of fans agree with me, but I can't ignore the lost presence of such a giant to the team and to the sport. We can hate the Yankees all we want, but we must all admit that we would love to have the vision and success of George Steinbrenner.

Monday, July 12, 2010

Why does the AL always win?

I've got some more Trek geek trivia for you, which compares to the National League's current plight. I noticed a long time ago, and it's probably noted on several Trekker blogs and message boards, that during the entire seven-year run of Next Generation, Geordi LaForge was the only regular who never won a poker game. Seven years without winning once - that sounds familiar...

Ah, the age-old question.

It may seem strange to categorize the question as age-old considering that the NL dominated the Midsummer Classic for the majority of its history. But I think the adjective fits in my case, since the AL turned the tables in 1988 when I was only six years old. In that time, the AL has gone 18-3-1 in the All-Star Game and is presently maintaining a 12-game winning streak (excluding the 7-7 tie in 2002).

I’m on a fool’s errand to try and find an answer to the AL’s success, but that has never stopped any of my previous endeavors. In my research I used a combination of my own observations and expounded upon the opinions I heard and read from various sources. As always, it’s up to my audience to decide whether or not my findings carry any weight.

The first thing I did was to limit my research to the past seven All-Star Games, since the ridiculous decision was made that the winner of the mid-July showcase would be rewarded home-field advantage in the World Series (a decision that hasn’t really hurt NL teams, which have won three of the last seven Fall Classics without home-field advantage). The All-Star Game shouldn’t affect anything during the regular season or playoffs, but it’s good to study the games that have actually mattered. Steroid use has also been on the decline since 2003.

With the parameters set up, I started searching for a pattern of dominance. I knew this would be no easy task, given the inherent randomness of one baseball game, let alone seven. There was also the fact that the AL had won each of the last four All-Star Games by just one run.

Luckily, I happened to catch an interview Bob Costas conducted with Jimmy Rollins and Ryan Howard. He asked them why they thought the AL kept winning, and they said the designated hitter gave the Junior Circuit all the advantage. That argument seemed pretty weak, but Costas led me down a more concrete path of reasoning when he pointed out that the Phillies offense struggled mightily against New York Yankee pitchers in the World Series. Howard particularly looked bad against a continuous string of breaking balls low and away.

It then dawned on me; why don’t NL pitchers throw Howard more off-speed junk? I’ve also read that AL pitchers in general throw more breaking balls, maybe because they don’t have to worry as much about small ball with the designated hitter. When you’re not throwing to poor-hitting pitchers or worrying as much about the bunt or hit-and-run, you don’t rely as much on the fastball. All major league hitters are looking for the fastball, so could the AL just be getting better pitches to hit from NL flame-throwers?

A general look at total baserunners and strikeouts over the last seven years turned up no patterns. The AL didn’t dominate either category.

As I continued my search, I read a theory online (with no numbers to back it up) that said the American League had better relief pitching in the All-Star Game. I immediately tracked down those numbers and on the surface, they appeared to support the claim.

In the past seven All-Star Games, AL relievers have posted a 3.91 ERA, compared to the NL’s 5.49. The disparity grows even more in the four one-run contests, three of which were decided in the last two innings. Since 2006, AL relievers have allowed just two earned runs in 15 innings, while striking out 16. In that same stretch, NL relievers have surrendered eight earned runs on 16 hits with just eight strikeouts.

This might explain the NL’s tendency to lean on starters much later in the game. The AL always seems to come up with the big hit off the guys whose job it is to shut down late rallies.

However, this explanation is hurt quite a bit by the fact that AL relievers have also walked eight batters in the past seven Midsummer Classics, compared to just three by the NL. The last thing you want to see late in a tight contest is a bunch of free passes. The AL is simply picking up the key outs, while the NL keeps getting hit.

In the end, this all seems to come down to a lot of luck. The AL stars keep calling heads and at the end of each game, George Washington’s profile continues to shine up at them.

The American League does have one clear advantage in relief pitching, though. Of the eight saves it has recorded since 1997, Mariano Rivera has four of them. Arguably the best relief pitcher in baseball history, Rivera has yet to allow an earned run in the All-Star Game.

The NL won’t have to worry about Rivera tomorrow due to his opting out, but his mentioning leads very well into my only other explanation: the AL always wins because the Yankees and the Red Sox are the two best teams in baseball. No other teams have enjoyed such a prominent presence in the Midsummer Classic. Since 2000, no fewer than a combined seven players from the two squads have been selected as representatives of the AL elite, and the pair also made up more than half of the starting lineups in ’02, ’05 and ’08.

Not only did New York and Boston feature some of the best pitchers of the last decade, but their hitters are notorious for working the count and getting on base. Stability breeds success and with so many Yankees and Red Sox taking the field every year, not to mention the pesky Ichiro cementing himself at the top of the lineup, it’s a winning formula. Aside from Albert Pujols, the NL can’t maintain that kind of consistency.

Whatever help the NL needs to break the pattern, it won’t get it from second-year manager Charlie Manuel. The Phillies skipper, in his infinite wisdom, decided to fill his roster with Atlanta utility infielder Omar Infante and Houston Astros centerfielder Michael Bourn (.255 batting average, 66 strikeouts and .661 OPS). Manuel apparently doesn’t pay attention to anyone in his league outside of former Phillies and players from his own division. Two guys who have no business making an All-Star Team, and probably never will again, were chosen outright, while the Reds’ Joey Votto – the best hitter in the NL right now – needed to squeeze in with the fans’ final vote. Votto is a guy who could easily come up with a couple of big hits, and he might not even leave the dugout.

This isn’t the first time NL managers have made poor decisions in the All-Star Game. King Albert Pujols was kept away from his batting box throne in the ’07 Classic by his own manager, while the vastly inferior Aaron Rowand (even in his career year with the Phillies) was given a second at-bat and flew out with the bases loaded to end the game.

The odds don’t seem to be in the NL’s favor with all of these mitigating factors, but if the closeness of the past four games is any indicator, the coin could still fall the Senior Circuit’s way by the time the last out is made tomorrow in Anaheim.

Unfortunately, I see the gap widening and Washington’s face shining brighter than ever. The AL will take this one by a final of 6-3.

I can't keep up!

From Lewis Black's 2006 HBO Special, "Red White and Screwed" - The past year-and-a-half is the toughest time I've ever spent as a comedian. It's just become more and more difficult. I just can't keep up with all this sh*t. It used to be easy. One or two things might happen in a week, but now something will happen and I'd read about it, and I'd go, "I'm gonna make that funny," and the next day, THIRTY OTHER THINGS HAVE F#!&ING HAPPENED! I don't even have a Ports of Dubai joke, and we're on to immigration!

It’s unfortunate I don’t have access to the Internet whenever I spend a weekend in my old stomping grounds (northern Delaware as most of you know). The Phillies tend to pull off the most memorable and improbable feats during those weekends, so excuse me once again for this untimely posting.

You know you’ve seen a great baseball game when it enthralls you to the point that you don’t much care who wins. Such a game took place Saturday night. I happened to make a trip to the batting cages and after a few unsuccessful sessions of trying to hit the ball the other way, I began watching the pitching masterpieces of Roy Halladay and Kevin Wood. One thing is for certain, if the Reds continue to bring up prospects of Wood’s quality, they’re going to be a contender in the NL Central for years to come.

I watched in awe and disbelief as Wood took a perfect game into the ninth inning. My adrenalin had already been pumping from hitting some live balls, and now I had to keep myself from shaking with excitement. It would have been worth a Phillies loss if it meant I was going to witness this unprecedented event. If all of these standout performances on the hill across baseball were the result of cleansing the game of steroids (assuming it was primarily the hitters who were cheating), I’m not complaining.

Wood came within three outs of perfection, narrowly out-dueling his veteran opponent. Halladay arguably had his best outing of the season, aside from his own perfect game, keeping Cincinnati from rewarding its rookie hurler’s dominance with any runs. Perhaps Halladay felt more himself on the mound with his battery-mate, Carlos Ruiz, back behind the plate.

Ruiz was apparently itching to return as well. Not only was he a key part of Halladay’s memorable night two months ago, he ended Wood’s bid with a leadoff double. Even Phillie fans at Citizens Bank Park would not have minded cheering on history for the other side, but when that hit found grass in left center, their screams conveyed a different message: Chooch is back!

Unlike Armondo Galarraga’s denied glory, this near-perfect game was legitimate, and Wood displayed the mental toughness of a veteran, stranding Ruiz on base and preserving his nine-inning, one-hit shutout.

They call it homefield advantage for a reason, though, and the Phillies finally provided for the bullpen the run that would have been enough for Halladay. After Ruiz’s second double, Jimmy Rollins came through with a walk-off hit. In the end, Philadelphia denied Wood a rare accomplishment and achieved one of its own, winning its third straight game in walk-off fashion. Who could’ve imagine packing so much into a 1-0 game?!

The Phillies are becoming an authority of 1-0 games, as they swept the Reds on Sunday with their second straight win of that score. It's been 97 years since Philly pulled that off, and that was 10 years before Babe Ruth made the home run popular.

J-Roll provided the only run in both games, slapping in the latter with an opposite-field hit like I wasn't able to do in the cage. Since his return from the DL, Rollins has definitely come through in big spots for the Phitins.

In four games, the Phillies beat the Reds by just five total runs. You hope the All-Star Break won't stop the momentum because it's wins like this that will lead to ones of larger margins down the road. I can certainly see a half-full glass. Placido Polanco and J.A. Happ will be back soon, and Philadelphia is generally a second-half team.

Good luck to Halladay and Ryan Howard in Anaheim tomorrow, and I hope the rest of the team enjoys the break. Three days don't seem like much after 20 straight games, and the Phillies have 18 straight more to begin the second half. If they stay on this winning track, it'll have to come on the road with back-to-back, four-game series against the Cubs and Cardinals. Philly just improved its record against the NL Central quite a bit, so watch out, Carpenter and Wainright.

Friday, July 9, 2010

Paying the ransom


Holy Howard, they did it again!

This team is certainly capable of the comeback they pulled off tonight, but who would have expected to see it? The way this season has gone, it's completely unlike the Phillies to suddenly figure out a pitcher who had been dominating them for eight innings.

And while it was Ryan Howard's blast that won it against the Reds in the 10th inning, the thanks really goes to Cody Ransom, who entered the game with just six at-bats this season and seven big league homers in his career. He hadn't gone yard in nearly two years, but he made sure he didn't miss Francisco Cordero's fastball that caught too much of the plate. His blast followed Greg Dobbs' three-run shot that breathed some life into a down-but-not-out offense. Give it up for the bench guys! Praise for them has not been a common occurrence this year.

Though the Phils couldn't finish it in the ninth, you could not have asked for a bigger momentum shift. It was the perfect time for Ryan Madson to make up for his rocky return from the DL on Thursday, and push that ERA back down. The deflated Reds were retired in order in the 10th - two by strikeout. It was a pleasant reminder of the '08 Madson.
It's all but a certainty that the Phillies will go into the break in third place, but these last two wins have to fill them with more confidence than they've felt in several weeks. I recall another team a few years back that won two straight games in walk-off fashion after some horrible defeats, and they went on to pull off the biggest postseason upset in baseball history before going on to win the World Series. This obviously isn't the same situation of the 2004 Red Sox, but this would not be bad time at all to turn the ship around.